Natural Constraints to Species Diversification

Identifying modes of species diversification is fundamental to our understanding of how biodiversity changes over evolutionary time. Diversification modes are captured in species phylogenies, but characterizing the landscape of diversification has been limited by the analytical tools available for directly comparing phylogenetic trees of groups of organisms. Here, we use a novel, non-parametric approach and 214 family-level phylogenies of vertebrates representing over 500 million years of evolution to identify major diversification modes, to characterize phylogenetic space, and to evaluate the bounds and central tendencies of species diversification. We identify five principal patterns of diversification to which all vertebrate families hold. These patterns, mapped onto multidimensional space, constitute a phylogenetic space with distinct properties. Firstly, phylogenetic space occupies only a portion of all possible tree space, showing family-level phylogenies to be constrained to a limited range of diversification patterns. Secondly, the geometry of phylogenetic space is delimited by quantifiable trade-offs in tree size and the heterogeneity and stem-to-tip distribution of branching events. These trade-offs are indicative of the instability of certain diversification patterns and effectively bound speciation rates (for successful clades) within upper and lower limits. Finally, both the constrained range and geometry of phylogenetic space are established by the differential effects of macroevolutionary processes on patterns of diversification. Given these properties, we show that the average path through phylogenetic space over evolutionary time traverses several diversification stages, each of which is defined by a different principal pattern of diversification and directed by a different macroevolutionary process. The identification of universal patterns and natural constraints to diversification provides a foundation for understanding the deep-time evolution of biodiversity.